The China Problem
Unlike America, China has little incentive to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear arsenal. China is currently the number two importer of Iranian oil (behind Japan) and is looking to import more. China does not look at Iran through Western eyes; where we see human rights abuses and Islamic extremism; China simply sees a country with lots of oil and natural gas.
There is no ideological linkage between Tehran and Beijing, and China is not worried about Iranian encroachment into Central Asia. For China, the Iranian question is one solely related to economics. The Chinese government believes that their political future is directly linked to the high growth rates that have been characteristic of recent years. This growth has been fueled, both figuratively and literally, by oil from the Persian Gulf. Iran and Saudi Arabia represent the number two and three oil import sources for China. In total, China receives over forty percent of its oil from the Middle East. Any sanctioning or military action taken against Iran may threaten China’s oil supply. Any disruption in the flow of oil into China would wreck havoc on GDP growth rates, which in turn could spell political upheaval and civilian unrest. This is something the Chinese want to avoid at all costs.
China faces no existential threat from Iran. Although it has a domestic problem with Islamic separatists, the Uighurs, the Beijing has tight control over its territory. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement, an Islamic Uighur organization has carried out several attacks in China, most notably the attack that occurred four days before the 2008 Olympics that killed fourteen. Although it has been rumored that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement has ties to Al Qaeda, it is doubtful that Iran has provided them with any training or material support.
The Chinese see little benefit in ratcheting up pressure on Iran. America has no real chips that it can cash in to persuade them to change their minds. Washington does not want to start a pressuring China, especially at a time when Beijing has expressed concern over America’s rising deficit and contracting purchasing power. The recent downturn in the world economy has emboldened China, whose wealth of foreign currency is allowing it to play a greater roll in the IMF. China is also supporting an idea, first floated by the Russians, which would create a new world currency that would displace American dollars as the currency held in reserve by countries around the world.
In her recent trip to China, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was indicative of America’s waning influence over China. She backed away from past administrations’ stance on human rights in China and the Tibet issue. This signaled to the Chinese that their relationship with America is in the process of transitioning from a mentor-mentee to a co-equal one. In this relationship, America will be wary of critiquing the Chinese government in any meaningful way.
China might be willing to get onboard with tougher sanctions, if President Obama signals that such sanctions would be crucial to American policy that will bring a resolution to the Iran question. China wants the issue resolved in such a way Middle Eastern oil can securely proceed through the Straight of Hormuz. China would prefer that such a resolution comes about by peaceful means, and Beijing might help with sanctions if it believes that they would deter military action.
All China wants is a secure channel for its oil to pass through.
